After months of speculation, the new Indian government finally gave an attitude towards the gold industry. In last week's budget, the Modi government decided not to modify the 10% gold import tariff, nor to modify 80: 20 import rules. India's gold industry has ushered in very disappointing results in a very big expectation.

Earlier in the budget, despite the optimism in the gold market, there have been warnings that the Indian government may not make changes to the gold import restriction policy, as this is likely to jeopardize India's rating. The People’s Party of India, which once expressed a positive attitude towards gold in the election campaign, realized that the relaxation of the gold import policy would be a huge Indian current account deficit.

The gold replacement plan announced by the Central Bank of India (RBI) in early July is the biggest signal that the government will not modify import restrictions. The replacement plan is to replace the old gold in the Indian central bank with a gold bar that meets the trading conditions. This replacement plan is to appease the domestic gold industry in India without affecting the current account deficit, that is, without affecting the Indian rating. In the plan, the RBI will distribute the old gold in the Nagpur treasury to the major banks in India, while at the same time bringing gold to the banks in London. The gold from the banks in London will be deposited in the account of the Bank of England RBI.

RBI is aware of the difficulties in India's domestic gold supply. RBI can in fact choose to process the old gold, but choose to pass such a replacement plan, which will affect its domestic gold supply. The reason why such a gold replacement plan does not affect India's current account deficit is because the cash involved in this replacement comes from revenue, and the RBI only needs to take out some of the gold purchased from its offshore dollar reserves.

India has 557 tons of gold reserves, but it is not known how many gold that does not meet the trading conditions. It is reported that the final replacement is still pending by the RBI. But no matter how many, this is limited. Even with India's appetite for gold, its supply to India's domestic gold market can only last for a few months. The results have come out, disappointment also needs to live, adjust your mindset.

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