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Since the start of this year, cotton prices have surged dramatically, reaching a 10-year high. On October 9th, the Chinese cotton price index hit 22,900 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan from the previous day. The Zhengzhou Cotton 1105 contract opened higher on October 8th and continued to climb, rising by 6% compared to the previous trading day.
This sharp increase has sent shockwaves through the textile industry in our province. Many textile company leaders are worried that if the trend continues, the sector could face widespread production cuts or even shutdowns. The situation is looking increasingly bleak.
The textile industry, still recovering from the shadow of the financial crisis, now faces yet another crisis. Reporters found that in wholesale markets around Hangzhou, such as Sijiqing Clothing Market and Huanbei Small Commodity Market, autumn clothing prices have risen sharply, with general increases exceeding 10%. Even low-cost Taobao online clothing stores have adjusted their pricing strategies.
On the Yongchang section of Lanxi’s National Highway 330, hundreds of offices from cotton mills across the country have set up shop. Business has been booming recently, with trucks constantly loading and unloading cotton yarn. A cotton yarn salesman said that although customers had previously waited for a while, the recent two-day upward trend has forced many to act quickly. Local textile companies have doubled their cotton yarn purchases to mitigate the impact of rising prices.
Due to the rapid recovery of the textile industry earlier this year and the subsequent boom, inventory levels at domestic textile companies are very low. Zhang Shugen, president of the Lanxi Textile Association and head of Zhejiang Ma Yunshan Textile Company, noted that current inventories in local textile mills typically last only half a month to a month. “The continuous rise in cotton prices has caused panic among many textile companies,†he said.
Export-oriented textile companies are particularly vulnerable. Ye Xiandong, chairman of the China Children's Wear Chamber of Commerce and CEO of Red, Yellow and Blue Children's Wear Company, explained that in addition to rising cotton costs, the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar has worsened the situation for an industry already operating on thin margins.
Why has the price of cotton affected the entire supply chain, including chemical fiber products? Consumers and businesses alike hope for a return to more stable prices. According to Zhang Shugen, several factors are driving this surge: increased planting costs due to higher fertilizer, pesticide, and seed prices, delayed sowing this year, and weather-related disruptions affecting yields. Additionally, global demand for cotton has surged after the financial crisis, creating a gap between supply and demand.
International supply and demand fluctuations have also played a role. Global cotton production was hit by disasters, leading to lower output. India reduced its cotton exports, while the falling U.S. dollar pushed prices higher. These combined factors have contributed to the rise in Chinese cotton prices. Moreover, speculation from hot money and reluctance from farmers to sell have further fueled the increase.
To address short-term supply shortages, the government has released reserves. From August 10 to September 25, a total of 540,000 tons of reserve cotton were sold. On September 26, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association announced that the state is working to ensure textile companies' cotton needs and will continue to release 400,000 tons of national reserve cotton. Despite these efforts, the tight supply situation remains, and no one can predict when prices will stabilize.
What should companies do? Ye Xiandong pointed out that the sudden 20% increase in cotton prices is too fast for the industry to absorb. This puts immense pressure on textile and garment companies. He mentioned that many textile firms have been unable to accept mid- to long-term orders due to cost pressures and price instability.
In Lanxi, Shaoxing, and Xiaoshan, many textile companies are being cautious about accepting new orders. “Besides handling existing orders, many companies have temporarily stopped taking new ones,†said a manager from a Ningbo-based textile company.
Some companies are actively adapting. Zhejiang Ma Yunshan Textile Company has adjusted its product mix, increasing the use of chemical fiber fabrics to cut costs. Zhejiang Aifu Textile Co., Ltd. signed a full-year contract at the beginning of the year, locking in raw material prices. As a result, sales and profits remain steady. Zhuji’s Jie Liya Group invested in establishing its own cotton production and processing base, integrating the supply chain to reduce the impact of raw material price swings.
However, for most textile and garment companies, the best option right now is to wait out the price surge. Zhang Shugen emphasized that while cotton price growth is a long-term trend, it must be managed carefully. If it rises too fast, it will ultimately harm both producers and consumers. The China Cotton Association’s recent report reflects a mature regulatory approach: prices must not rise too fast, or they will discourage farmers and hurt the industry.