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Since the start of this year, cotton prices have surged and have maintained a near-decade high. On October 9th, the Chinese cotton price index reached 22,900 yuan per ton in the spot market, up 190 yuan per ton from the previous day. The Zhengzhou Cotton 1105 contract opened higher on the 8th and continued to rise, with a 6% increase compared to the previous trading day.
This sharp rise in cotton prices has had a significant impact on the textile industry in our province. Many textile company leaders are worried that if this trend continues, the sector could face widespread production cuts or even shutdowns. The outlook is increasingly concerning.
The textile industry, which had just emerged from the shadow of the financial crisis, now finds itself in another difficult situation. Reporters found that in wholesale markets around Hangzhou, such as Sijiqing Clothing Wholesale Market and Huanbei Small Commodity Market, autumn clothing prices have increased by more than 10%. Even low-cost Taobao online clothing stores have adjusted their new listings.
On the Yongchang section of Lanxi’s State Highway 330, hundreds of offices from cotton mills across the country are busy. Trucks frequently load and unload cotton yarn. A cotton yarn salesman noted that although customers were once hesitant due to rising cotton prices, the recent two-day upward trend has made many clients anxious. Local textile companies are now purchasing more cotton yarn to mitigate the impact of price increases.
Due to the rapid recovery of the textile industry and the early-stage boom, domestic textile companies have low inventory levels. "Currently, the inventory at local textile mills lasts only about half a month to a month," said Zhang Shugen, president of the Lanxi Textile Association and head of Zhejiang Ma Yunshan Textile Company. "The continuous rise in cotton prices has caused panic among many local textile companies."
Export-oriented textile companies are likely to be hit the hardest. Ye Xiandong, chairman of the China Children's Wear Chamber of Commerce and CEO of Red, Yellow and Blue Children's Wear Company, said that in addition to the rising cost of cotton, the recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar has further complicated the situation for an industry already operating on thin margins.
The surge in cotton prices seems to be spreading throughout the entire supply chain, even affecting related chemical fiber products, which have also seen significant price increases. Both consumers and businesses are hoping for a return to more stable pricing.
According to Zhang Shugen’s analysis, several factors have contributed to this round of cotton price increases. According to the China Cotton Association, higher costs for fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds, combined with delayed planting and weather-related issues this year, have affected cotton yields. As a result, the purchase price of cotton is significantly higher than last year. Additionally, global demand for cotton has surged after the financial crisis, creating a gap between supply and demand that has driven up prices.
International supply and demand fluctuations have also impacted domestic cotton prices. Reports indicate that global cotton production has been affected by disasters, leading to lower output. India has reduced its cotton exports, while the weak U.S. dollar has pushed cotton prices higher. These factors, along with speculation from hot money and reluctance from cotton farmers to sell, have all contributed to the price hike.
To address the short-term supply shortage, the government has released reserves. From August 10 to September 25, a total of 540,000 tons of reserve cotton was sold. On September 26, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association announced that the state is making efforts to ensure textile companies’ cotton needs and will continue to release 400,000 tons of national reserve cotton into the market. Despite these measures, the tight supply situation remains, and no one can predict when the price will stabilize.
Where do companies go? “Cotton prices have risen by over 20% in just a few days, which is too fast to digest. The pressure on textile and garment companies will be huge,†said Ye Xiandong.
In fact, problems are emerging. Ye Xiandong recently received numerous reports from textile and garment companies struggling with high cost pressures and unstable prices, making it difficult for them to accept mid- to long-term orders. Similarly, many textile companies in Lanxi, Shaoxing, and Xiaoshan are being cautious about both domestic and international orders. “In addition to fulfilling existing orders, many companies have temporarily refused new ones,†said a manager at a textile company in Ningbo.
Some companies are actively taking steps to counter the situation. Zhejiang Ma Yunshan Textile Company adjusted its product structure, increasing the proportion of chemical fiber fabrics to effectively reduce production costs. Zhejiang Aifu Textile Co., Ltd. signed a full-year contract at the beginning of the year, locking in raw material prices. Currently, sales and profits remain stable. Zhuji’s Jie Liya Group invested in establishing a cotton production and processing base, integrating the industrial chain to minimize the impact of raw material price fluctuations.
However, for most textile and garment companies, the best they can do right now is to wait out this price increase storm.
“As cotton prices continue to rise, it's a long-term trend, but it must be managed carefully. Otherwise, it won’t benefit either the upstream or downstream sectors,†said Zhang Shugen. He added that the recent report from the China Cotton Association reflects a mature regulatory approach: if cotton prices don't rise, farmers won't see increased income, which could dampen planting enthusiasm and affect next year’s production. But if prices rise too quickly, it becomes unsustainable for textile companies, bringing high risks.