Cotton prices in the US will stop rising

The domestic flower gauze market continued last month's weak consolidation, and the trend of sales declines was delayed. In the traditional textile season, the “Red May” still did not prosper during the busy season, while the cotton prices stopped falling. The New York cotton period is a downward trend that has accumulated a slight increase in the consolidation. The international spot cotton price is also a minor declining trend in the cumulative decline. The domestic cotton price is still the trend of “close to” the sales price of the national reserve cotton sell-off auction. The spot lint price has continued to decline slightly; the Zhengmian ** recent month contract is the trend of a small increase in amplitude; In recent months, the price of the MA1406 contract has been substantially reduced. The price of cotton staple fiber was weak and the transaction was dull. The price of polyester staple fiber was difficult to maintain, and the accumulated amplitude continued to fall. The price of viscose staple fiber was stable and weak. The yarn and cloth market is still weak, trading is sluggish and prices continue to fall.

Date Item New York Cotton Season ICE1407 International Cotton Price Index CotlookA (FE) China Imported Cotton Price Index FCindexM China Cotton Price Index CCindex3128B Electronic Blending MA1406 Zheng Cotton ** CF1407 Polyester Staple Fiber Viscose Staple Fiber This week, the overall price of ICE cotton is a small consolidation Running, the cumulative downward trend of a slight downward trend. The trajectory of the main ICE cotton 1407 contract is rising on Monday and Thursday, and the consolidation trend on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. The international spot cotton price is also a downward trend that has accumulated a slight increase and stop falling during consolidation.

Monday (5th) was mainly due to the general external market's rise (the price of commodities such as corn and wheat on the same day rose). As a result, the ICE cotton futures contract continued its upward trend last Friday and the 1407 contract closed at 94.75 cents. A new high in 26 months. Another market rumors that this year's cotton planting area in China will exceed the expected reduction of 12% to 12.6%; the United States continues to dry the cotton area in western Texas, southeast cotton area continued rainfall, sown area decreased, delayed sowing of new flowers and other news also contributed to the ICE period Cotton rose. Thursday (8th) was favored by US cotton export data [April 25th to May 1st, US net contracted export of 14,470 tons of upland cotton this year (a sharp increase from the previous week, an increase from the average of 4 weeks) %), with the shipment of 47,242 tons (down 5% from the previous week and 18% from the 4-week average)], the main ICE cotton contract of 1407 rose again, while other forward contracts continued to fall.

The decline of cotton on Tuesday and the third ICE was mainly due to the market waiting for the USDA forecast report issued by the USDA to be released next Friday. Before the release of the ICE cotton data, investors remained cautious and the bulls left the market to make cotton prices. Pressure caused. On Friday (9th), after the ICE futures cotton opened steadily, the near-term contract movements were mixed. However, before the close, USDA's latest supply and demand report forecasted that US cotton exports would fall during the year, and the negative growth in ending stocks pressured the recent two contracts to significantly increase. Declined, forward contracts rose. Market volume decreased.

This week's Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures are the downward trend of a slight stop-down. The main ICE cotton contract for the 1407 contract fell 1.96 cents/lb, a decrease of 2.08%, and the weekend price was 92.36 cents/lb, still above the 90 cents/lb integer price point. The international cotton price index CotlookA (FE) fell 1.00 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.05%, and the weekend price was 94.30 cents/lb. China's imported cotton index FCIndexM decreased by 1.64 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.67%, and the weekend price was 96.75 cents/lb.

This week, the domestic cotton market is still in the running situation of the “policy cotton market” in which the State Reserve Cotton sells and monopolizes the “monopoly”. The transaction price of the State Reserve Cotton Sold is “close” to the consolidation of cotton prices. "The ruler." The main channel for the purchase of cotton by cotton textile enterprises is still the state reserve cotton from the sale of the State Reserve Cotton, supplemented by the procurement of some of the high-grade cotton or cotton that is applicable to the spot market, and the willingness to purchase in the spot market is low. The spot cotton lint stocks of the cotton processing enterprises are mostly low-grade cotton, which is difficult to sell. Even if it is difficult to trade profits, only a small amount of high-grade domestic cotton is better than imported cotton. The spot cotton price gradually decreased to “close” with the downward pressure on the sale price of state reserve cotton sales, and the transaction volume was light, and the accumulated slight increase continued to fall. Zhengmian ** maintains a strong differentiation trend near the weak, the recent month contract is still a weak trend of a slight increase in the amplitude of the expansion. Electronic cooperation continued trading and ordering center of gravity in the far month, ordering in the recent months of cold, the overall price shocks and finishing to the spot cotton prices "seem" the trend, in recent months, MA1406 contract prices have accumulated a substantial reduction.

The sale of the State Reserve Bank of Cotton sold steadily, with the overall transaction ratio slightly lower, and the cotton textile enterprises were following the auction. Although the State Reserve's imported cotton is accompanied by a ratio of 3:1, since the end of April, the development of the northern Xinjiang cotton textile enterprises' participation in the state reserve cotton enthusiasm has been declining. According to several cotton textile enterprises in Shihezi, Xinjiang, the first is that the “three wires” of the State Reserve Cotton are serious and cannot replace the high-count yarns of US cotton and Australian cotton. Second, the consistency of the national reserve cotton is relatively poor, and the ratio of horses to C2 is relatively high. High, high-risk yarn high risk; Third, the auction country needs to save 100% of the total cotton, cotton textile companies, financial pressure, fund-raising difficulties; Fourth, although the import of cotton with the State Reserve cotton, but the transport back to Xinjiang did not Transportation subsidies are too costly to adjust to the low prices of cotton textile companies in the Mainland. The fifth is that the round-trip storage of the State Reserve Cotton must take on the tasks of storing and transporting lint in 2013 at the same time. Longer; Sixth, the national reserves of individual batches of cotton have a relatively large deficit, and some even reach 3-5%; in addition, a short cotton fiber is also a reason that affects cotton textile companies to participate in the auction.